Serenity breaks even and becomes profitable on DVD

[Matt_Fabb]

There was quite a bit of discussion a while back whether the movie Serenity would make any money for Universal. Well, it seems now on DVD that the movie has moved out of the red and is now making money for Universal. It hasn't exactly made a huge amount of money and there's still some way to go for a sequel to happen, but at least the movie is no longer climbing out of the red.

Here's some figures and number crunching for anyone who's interested:

Serenity costs $39 million to make ($1 million under it's $40 million budget) and while the advertising budget was never made public, people have estimated around $10 million. So overall the movie costs around $49 million for Universal to make. Now Serenity made a disappointing $25 million domestically and $13 million internationally for a total of $38 million at the box office. Now following the 55% rule, where studios get around 55% of the total of the box office, Universal only made $21 million from the box office.

Now there's been no official sales figures for Serenity since it's been released on DVD, only where it's ranked on the sales charts. However, there have been sales announcements for other DVD's above and bellow Serenity and people have managed to do some number crunching and worked out that Serenity sold from 1.104 to 1.605 million copies in the first week of release! Some more number crunching was done to figure out Serenity sold around 825 thousand copies for January 2006. So by now it's definitely over 2 million (possibly high as 2.5 million). Now studios generally take around $12 dollars profit per DVD, with the remaining split between the retailer and distributer. So that's $24 million from the DVD sales, already more than the studio made from the box office. Meanwhile VideoBusiness.com tracked Serenity in bringing in over $9 million in DVD rentals. It has since fallen off the chart, but at the rate of it's decline it's safe to estimate that it manage to make $10 million before dropping too far.

Now the tv rights for Serenity were sold to NBC for a 3 movie package deal for $26 million. Now Serenity was hardly the top movie in the deal, so let's low ball it and say Serenity only gets $5 million out of that deal.

So that's $21 million from the box office, $24 million from DVD sales, $10 million from rentals, and around $5 million from tv rights for a total of $60 million. With Serenity costing $49 million to make and advertise it's estimated that Universal has made $11 million off of the movie. Not nearly enough for Universal to invest in another movie, but there's still profit to be made. The DVD has yet been released internationally and if the domestic sales are any indication, the DVD will make more money than the theatre box office. Especially since Universal International has included a lot of cool extras in the various international editions, the Australian version has a second disk of extras and comes in a cool metal tin, plus one retailer is offering free posters with the movie, another retailer offering Serenity mouse-mats and all sorts of other cool stuff. Meanwhile the DVD has sold well enough for the talked about Special Edition to be made available. The extras have already been produced for the Australian edition and ready to go, the only extra thing that Joss Whedon wants to do is add full cast audio commentary.

Meanwhile those calculations didn't include anything from licensing which has been doing really well. The comic book, movie novelization, books, official t-shirts, RPG have all sold better than expected and more of all these items are on it's way. There's more money to be made out of this franchise yet and a sequel or possibily even a direct-to-DVD sequel might still yet happen.

[KSChris]

Originally posted by Matt_Fabb
There was quite a bit of discussion a while back whether the movie Serenity would make any money for Universal. Well, it seems now on DVD that the movie has moved out of the red and is now making money for Universal. It hasn't exactly made a huge amount of money and there's still some way to go for a sequel to happen, but at least the movie is no longer climbing out of the red.

Here's some figures and number crunching for anyone who's interested:

Serenity costs $39 million to make ($1 million under it's $40 million budget) and while the advertising budget was never made public, people have estimated around $10 million. So overall the movie costs around $49 million for Universal to make. Now Serenity made a disappointing $25 million domestically and $13 million internationally for a total of $38 million at the box office. Now following the 55% rule, where studios get around 55% of the total of the box office, Universal only made $21 million from the box office.

Now there's been no official sales figures for Serenity since it's been released on DVD, only where it's ranked on the sales charts. However, there have been sales announcements for other DVD's above and bellow Serenity and people have managed to do some number crunching and worked out that Serenity sold from 1.104 to 1.605 million copies in the first week of release! Some more number crunching was done to figure out Serenity sold around 825 thousand copies for January 2006. So by now it's definitely over 2 million (possibly high as 2.5 million). Now studios generally take around $12 dollars profit per DVD, with the remaining split between the retailer and distributer. So that's $24 million from the DVD sales, already more than the studio made from the box office. Meanwhile VideoBusiness.com tracked Serenity in bringing in over $9 million in DVD rentals. It has since fallen off the chart, but at the rate of it's decline it's safe to estimate that it manage to make $10 million before dropping too far.

Now the tv rights for Serenity were sold to NBC for a 3 movie package deal for $26 million. Now Serenity was hardly the top movie in the deal, so let's low ball it and say Serenity only gets $5 million out of that deal.

So that's $21 million from the box office, $24 million from DVD sales, $10 million from rentals, and around $5 million from tv rights for a total of $60 million. With Serenity costing $49 million to make and advertise it's estimated that Universal has made $11 million off of the movie. Not nearly enough for Universal to invest in another movie, but there's still profit to be made. The DVD has yet been released internationally and if the domestic sales are any indication, the DVD will make more money than the theatre box office. Especially since Universal International has included a lot of cool extras in the various international editions, the Australian version has a second disk of extras and comes in a cool metal tin, plus one retailer is offering free posters with the movie, another retailer offering Serenity mouse-mats and all sorts of other cool stuff. Meanwhile the DVD has sold well enough for the talked about Special Edition to be made available. The extras have already been produced for the Australian edition and ready to go, the only extra thing that Joss Whedon wants to do is add full cast audio commentary.

Meanwhile those calculations didn't include anything from licensing which has been doing really well. The comic book, movie novelization, books, official t-shirts, RPG have all sold better than expected and more of all these items are on it's way. There's more money to be made out of this franchise yet and a sequel or possibily even a direct-to-DVD sequel might still yet happen.

Whatever happened to the "catch-all" thread?

I hope theres no sequel just to save us from the 10329347324 threads..

[Matt_Fabb]

Originally posted by DaReekstah
Whatever happened to the "catch-all" thread?

I hope theres no sequel just to save us from the 10329347324 threads..

In the past month or so there's been only one Serenity thread that I know of. Also I figured this shouldn't go into the catch-all thread, as whether Serenity would make any money was a topic debated by a lot of people, many who weren't Serenity fans and would miss it in the catch all thread.

Any future news or anything that I post, I'll put into the catch-all thread instead of starting a new thread.

[csGuy]

10 million from rentals? I've always assumed that studios don't get any money from rentals at all, unless you're telling me that blockbuster has to give Universal some fixed amount of money for every time someone takes a copy out.

[JMarsh642]

Wash: We'll be rich and prosperous. Well, less poor than we are now.

I hope Serenity just keeps on flying. Thanks for the great news. You've made my day!

[algertman]

why do you people hate me?

[The Shadow]

Originally posted by csGuy
10 million from rentals? I've always assumed that studios don't get any money from rentals at all, unless you're telling me that blockbuster has to give Universal some fixed amount of money for every time someone takes a copy out.

No Blockbuster doesn't have to give any money for each rental... but it has to buy multiple DVD's/video's to ensure they have enough rentals for everyone.

Where blockbuster makes a KILLING is on selling the previously viewed movies. PURE profit for them.

[The Shadow]

Originally posted by algertman
why do you people hate me?

Because we know your affinity for Senenity/Firefly and that no matter how much you bitch and moan about the subject (and we know you will... ad nausium ) you cannot get the fans down.

Have a nice day.

[csGuy]

Originally posted by The Shadow
No Blockbuster doesn't have to give any money for each rental... but it has to buy multiple DVD's/video's to ensure they have enough rentals for everyone.

Where blockbuster makes a KILLING is on selling the previously viewed movies. PURE profit for them.

So the 10 million$ is from rental outlets buying the DVDs?

[Punchy]

I need to get the Firefly boxset

[KingPagla]

Originally posted by DaReekstah
Whatever happened to the "catch-all" thread?

I hope theres no sequel just to save us from the 10329347324 threads..

Why you gotta be a Hater?

[Matt_Fabb]

Originally posted by csGuy
10 million from rentals? I've always assumed that studios don't get any money from rentals at all, unless you're telling me that blockbuster has to give Universal some fixed amount of money for every time someone takes a copy out.

Hmmmm... I made the stupid assumption that the $10 million was the studio's take, but looking at the numbers closer, I don't think that's the case. So instead of $11 million profit, Universal has only made $1 million profit, plus an unknown amount of money from rental stores.

I thought that the video industry changed from selling copies of movies at high prices ($100+) to rental stores, to a stystem where studios sell movies at lower prices but then get a percentage of the video rental. Doing a google search I can't find any articles giving details if it's one way or another. Either way, it looks like how much money Universal made off of DVD's to rental stores will stay unknown. Still, without that the movie is still made money and as mentioned there's still international DVD sales, a possible special edition, plus pay-for-view cable stations. With all these different factors it's no wonder there's a thing such as "Hollywood accounting" where they can make a profitable movie make it look like it made no money.

[EyesBL7]

Originally posted by Matt_Fabb
With all these different factors it's no wonder there's a thing such as "Hollywood accounting" where they can make a profitable movie make it look like it made no money.

Or vice versa.

[jmcl89]

The unfortunate thing for Universal is that they don't produce the DVDs of the original series, since I'm sure the movie drove substantial additional sales of that, but all the money goes to FOX.

[Matt_Fabb]

Uhhh... wow... my post was linked to whedonesque.com, with a much better title "Out of the Red and Into the Black?". They provide a lot more input on the issue including a bunch of costs that I missed out on that aren't included in the budget of a movie such as distribution costs, MPAA fees, print production, plus international advertising, not to mention flying cast members and Whedon around the world to promote the movie. There's so many unknown costs and unknown revenue streams that I think it's just about impossible for someone outside of the industry or even outside Universal to really figure out whether a movie such a Serenity has made money or not.

Also interesting is this article that someone from Whedonesque.com linked to which I've read before but did not bookmark. It mentions that these days studios make only 20% of their money from movie theatres. Also it does mention that rental stores do buy DVD's from studios at $60 or more and then keep profits that they make. So how much money Serenity made via rentals is completely unknown since it would matter how many copies of the movie they bought.

[grendel824]

I just really hope we get to see some more Serenity/Firefly stuff. It really deserves to be out there.

[avengingtitan]

Originally posted by Punchy
I need to get the Firefly boxset

I just finished watching it. I got all the disk's from Netflix. I will be watching the movie when I get that from Netflix in a few days.

[stiltman6969]

lol why is it that people are APPLAUDING a movie breaking even??? that isn't GOOD.

it was alright... but nothing good... and it certainly shouldn't be celebrated. nothing against whedon but he's a niche guy and it works for him. why can't his fans understand this and quit subjecting the rest of us to constant chatter about how great he is?

[avengingtitan]

Originally posted by stiltman6969
lol why is it that people are APPLAUDING a movie breaking even??? that isn't GOOD.

it was alright... but nothing good... and it certainly shouldn't be celebrated. nothing against whedon but he's a niche guy and it works for him. why can't his fans understand this and quit subjecting the rest of us to constant chatter about how great he is?

People like Serenity, Firefly, Angel, & Buffy for the same reason that they like Star Trek. I Like Firefly, Angel, and Buffy but I dont worship them.

[Matt_Fabb]

Originally posted by stiltman6969
lol why is it that people are APPLAUDING a movie breaking even??? that isn't GOOD.

it was alright... but nothing good... and it certainly shouldn't be celebrated. nothing against whedon but he's a niche guy and it works for him. why can't his fans understand this and quit subjecting the rest of us to constant chatter about how great he is?

Funny, there isn't any mention in this thread about how great or bad Serenity is, just whether it made money, as fans are hoping for a sequel.

After Serenity openned in the theatres there was a big long thread called "SERENITY BOMBS" where people debated whether or not the movie would make any money and whether there would be a sequel. A lot of peope thought there was no chance it would make any money and would do poorly on DVD as well. So far it's been quite the successful on DVD and now it's the question of whether it will be successful enough to make a sequel.

Finally, if you aren't interested in the thread then don't open it and read it. Fans aren't "subjecting the rest of you to constant chatter about how great he is", you're doing that yourself when you open the thread. Personally, I think the massive comic crossovers such as House of M and Infinite Crisis really suck and there's constant threads about them and other comic book topics that I dislike and I simply don't open them and ignore them. If other fans enjoy talking about these topics, then good for then.

As for whether or not Whedon is a niche writer, well, Firefly and Serenity had problems breaking out into the mainstream but Buffy I think was a bit too big to be considered just a niche. Sure, it has quite the cult following, but at it's height during season 2 and 3 it was a decent hit on tv, getting really good ratings and managed to run for 7 seasons. Plus Whedon worked on the Toy Story script, as one of the first writers and then on the final script and it was quite mainstream. Not that there's anything wrong with being a niche writer and I don't consider that an insult or anything, it's just I think on some occasions Whedon has managed to break out into the mainstream and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it again with Wonder Woman and has a decent sized hit with his horror movie (a lot more marketable genre rather than a sci-fi-western) Goners.

[WiseManShazam]

Originally posted by Matt_Fabb
Funny, there isn't any mention in this thread about how great or bad Serenity is, just whether it made money, as fans are hoping for a sequel.

After Serenity openned in the theatres there was a big long thread called "SERENITY BOMBS" where people debated whether or not the movie would make any money and whether there would be a sequel. A lot of peope thought there was no chance it would make any money and would do poorly on DVD as well. So far it's been quite the successful on DVD and now it's the question of whether it will be successful enough to make a sequel.

Finally, if you aren't interested in the thread then don't open it and read it. Fans aren't "subjecting the rest of you to constant chatter about how great he is", you're doing that yourself when you open the thread. Personally, I think the massive comic crossovers such as House of M and Infinite Crisis really suck and there's constant threads about them and other comic book topics that I dislike and I simply don't open them and ignore them. If other fans enjoy talking about these topics, then good for then.

As for whether or not Whedon is a niche writer, well, Firefly and Serenity had problems breaking out into the mainstream but Buffy I think was a bit too big to be considered just a niche. Sure, it has quite the cult following, but at it's height during season 2 and 3 it was a decent hit on tv, getting really good ratings and managed to run for 7 seasons. Plus Whedon worked on the Toy Story script, as one of the first writers and then on the final script and it was quite mainstream. Not that there's anything wrong with being a niche writer and I don't consider that an insult or anything, it's just I think on some occasions Whedon has managed to break out into the mainstream and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it again with Wonder Woman and has a decent sized hit with his horror movie (a lot more marketable genre rather than a sci-fi-western) Goners.

I concur

[EmeraldGuy32]

Originally posted by Punchy
I need to get the Firefly boxset

Yes you do. I still haven't seen Serenity because I wanted to watch the series first. Bought it on e-bay and now I'm a browncoat all the way!

[Nightfly]

Hey Matt,
Did you know your post (here) got linked on Whedonesque?  Smooth!!

Originally posted by Matt_Fabb
Uhhh... wow... my post was linked to whedonesque.com, with a much better title "Out of the Red and Into the Black?". They provide a lot more input on the issue including a bunch of costs that I missed out on that aren't included in the budget of a movie such as distribution costs, MPAA fees, print production, plus international advertising, not to mention flying cast members and Whedon around the world to promote the movie. There's so many unknown costs and unknown revenue streams that I think it's just about impossible for someone outside of the industry or even outside Universal to really figure out whether a movie such a Serenity has made money or not.

Also interesting is this article that someone from Whedonesque.com linked to which I've read before but did not bookmark. It mentions that these days studios make only 20% of their money from movie theatres. Also it does mention that rental stores do buy DVD's from studios at $60 or more and then keep profits that they make. So how much money Serenity made via rentals is completely unknown since it would matter how many copies of the movie they bought.

Nevermind!  Congrats Again!!

[Headhunter]

Fantastic news! I can't see Universal turning down a sequel when the movie (and the show, and the comics/trades which sold out within hours on release days at my LCS, etc) hit such critical and commercial success.

It takes a while, but Serenity always enters the black.

[Zig Zag Wanderer]

Originally posted by EmeraldGuy32
Yes you do. I still haven't seen Serenity because I wanted to watch the series first. Bought it on e-bay and now I'm a browncoat all the way!

I borrowed a friend's and then bought my own new the next day.

Given how it was handled on TV, this was the best way to see them.